forum Politics and Society ›› NASA: Arctic Ice lowest ever, 'Inevitable death' ›› new reply Post Reply
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August 27 2012 4:46 PM   QuickQuote Quote  





27 August 2012 BBC

Arctic sea ice reaches record low, Nasa says
The melt season is expected to continue until the second half of September

The Arctic has lost more sea ice this year than at any time since satellite records began in 1979, Nasa says.

Scientists involved in the calculations say it is part of a fundamental change.

What is more, sea ice normally reaches its low point in September so it is thought likely that this year's melt will continue to grow.

Nasa says the extent of sea ice was 1.58m sq miles (410m sq km) compared with a previous low of 1.61m sq miles (4.17m sq km) on 18 September 2007.

The sea ice cap grows during the cold Arctic winters and shrinks when temperatures climb again, but over the last three decades, satellites have observed a 13% decline per decade in the summertime minimum.

The thickness of the sea ice is also declining, so overall the ice volume has fallen far - although estimates vary about the actual figure.

Joey Comiso, senior research scientist at Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center, said this year's ice retreat was caused by previous warm years reducing the amount of perennial ice - which is more resistant to melting. It's created a self-reinforcing trend.

"Unlike 2007, temperatures were not unusually warm in the Arctic this summer. [But] we are losing the thick component of the ice cover," he said. "And if you lose [that], the ice in the summer becomes very vulnerable."

'Inevitable death'

Walt Meier, from the National Snow and Ice Data Center that collaborates in the measurements, said: "In the context of what's happened in the last several years and throughout the satellite record, it's an indication that the Arctic sea ice cover is fundamentally changing."
    
“The summer ice volume is now only 30% of what it was in the 1980s”
-Prof Peter Wadhams Cambridge University

Professor Peter Wadhams, from Cambridge University, told BBC News: "A number of scientists who have actually been working with sea ice measurement had predicted some years ago that the retreat would accelerate and that the summer Arctic would become ice-free by 2015 or 2016.

"I was one of those scientists - and of course bore my share of ridicule for daring to make such an alarmist prediction."

But Prof Wadhams said the prediction was now coming true, and the ice had become so thin that it would inevitably disappear.

"Measurements from submarines have shown that it has lost at least 40% of its thickness since the 1980s, and if you consider the shrinkage as well it means that the summer ice volume is now only 30% of what it was in the 1980s," he added.

"This means an inevitable death for the ice cover, because the summer retreat is now accelerated by the fact that the huge areas of open water already generated allow storms to generate big waves which break up the remaining ice and accelerate its melt.

"Implications are serious: the increased open water lowers the average albedo [reflectivity] of the planet, accelerating global warming; and we are also finding the open water causing seabed permafrost to melt, releasing large amounts of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere."







1979 vs. 2007



2012







.................




The Mystery at the Heart of This Year's Record-Setting Arctic Ice Melt

By Alexis C. Madrigal theatlantic.com

You have probably heard that the Arctic has less sea ice right now than humans have ever recorded. The new record, set yesterday, beat the previous low, which was measured in September 2007.

"By itself it's just a number, and occasionally records are going to get set," said National Snow and Ice Data Center scientist Walt Meier in an official statement. "But in the context of what's happened in the last several years and throughout the satellite record, it's an indication that the Arctic sea ice cover is fundamentally changing."

There are two odd things about this sad record of global change.

First, it's only late August, several weeks before the traditional time when the sea ice melting stops. So we may have several weeks to go of melting, in which case, this year's low could not just break but shatter 2007's record.

Second, if the melt continues for days or weeks more, the melt will end up catastrophically lower than anyone anticipated.

After 2007's low -- which scared many Arctic scientists into statements like, "The Arctic is screaming" -- the sea ice up north recovered, though not to pre-2007 levels. Counting this year, the six years with the least sea ice on record all occurred in the last six years.

In that sense, it is not a monumental surprise that 2012 did not see an overabundance of sea ice or return to the norms of earlier this century. On the other hand, the catastrophic drop off of sea ice in the last few weeks was not something that was easy to model or predict.

What happened?

***

Each year, a program called the Sea Ice Outlook gathers predictions about sea ice from different teams of scientists. The groups use different techniques to predict what the next summer's ice melt season might look like. Some do straight statistics, others build models, and other groups use heuristics or a combination of methods. Teams can submit in June, July, and August. In all cases, they are all trying to guess how much sea ice will be left in the Arctic come mid-September, which (as noted above) had traditionally been the low point. The measure that scientists use to describe the sea ice's extent is the millions of square kilometers of ice that our satellites can see from orbit.

In May of this year, it looked as if the Arctic was going to have a year much like the past four, if a little worse. A lot of ice would melt, more than in any of the years before or since 2007's record-setting low, but none predicted a catastrophic year. The median guess was 4.4 million square kilometers of sea ice would be left, and the band was pretty tight around that number, with only a single group predicting a sea ice extent of 4.1 million square kilometers or lower. A few numbers for comparison: The average low from 1979 to 2000 was 6.7 million square kilometers. In 2010 and 2011, 4.9 and 4.6 million square kilometers of sea ice remained in September. The record low was 4.17 million square kilometers of sea ice in 2007.

And it is this last number that the Arctic crashed through this week with a measurement of 4.1 million square kilometers of sea ice left.

Now, the modelers may not turn out to have been wrong if, as we mentioned above, the sea ice melt season ends early. "We'll see how September turns out," Robert Grumbine, an ice modeler with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who worked on three of the predictions, told me. "It isn't unheard of for the annual minimum to be about now, rather than in September."

Some of the more recent (July and August) predictions for the Sea Ice Outlook have revised their estimates downwards on the basis of the early summer. Nonetheless, it still stands: going into this summer, we were not expecting a record low for sea ice.

And now here's the most recent data.






What's befuddling about 2012, relative to 2007, is that the Arctic has not seen the kind of ice-melting weather that 2007 did. "I'm at a loss at this loss," wrote sea ice blogger (yes they exist!) Neven Acropolis. "The 2007 record that stunned everyone, gets shattered without 2007 weather conditions."

Unknown unknowns aside, one frightening possibility exists. For years, scientists have been warning that Arctic sea ice is thinning. Thinner ice melts more quickly. But when we traditionally measure sea ice, scientists aren't looking at the mass of the ice, just the surface extent.

Unfortunately, as the University of Washington's Polar Science Center explains, we can't monitor sea ice volume easily.

"Sea ice volume is an important climate indicator. It depends on both ice thickness and extent and therefore more directly tied to climate forcing than extent alone. However, Arctic sea ice volume cannot currently be observed continuously. Observations from satellites, Navy submarines, moorings, and field measurements are all limited in space and time. "

So, scientists have to take these limited readings and build a model that estimates the sea ice volume. They call it PIOMAS, a catchy acronym for the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System. Obviously, as with any model, there are limitations to its predictive power. But in recent years, and even more dramatically in recent weeks, PIOMAS has been showing a major anomaly relative to the longtime average in ice thickness. Even where there has been ice in the Arctic, it's much thinner than it used to be.





If this year's melt continues and the amount of sea ice in the Arctic reaches even lower, it may be confirmation that the ice really is that thin and easier to melt, perhaps introducing other dynamics that seem poised to accelerate the decline of the system. The climate change signal, in other words, is growing stronger as the Arctic moves toward ice-free summers. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, as quoted on Dot Earth:

"The fact that the ice is so dramatically thinner now than it was only 20 years ago means that it is vulnerable to any abnormal weather event or fluctuation in ocean currents. If the "perfect storm" of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that led to the 2007 record, or the patterns that reduced ice this summer, happened back in the thick-ice era, sea-ice loss would not be making headlines. Following this summer's new record ice loss, the Arctic will enter a winter with even less ice than ever before, leading to even thinner ice, which barring any monumental external events like a major volcanic eruption, will likely perpetuate the trend in sea ice decline."








Arctic ice melt 'like adding 20 years of CO2 emissions'
BBC News

The loss of Arctic ice is massively compounding the effects of greenhouse gas emissions, ice scientist Professor Peter Wadhams has told BBC Newsnight.

White ice reflects more sunlight than open water, acting like a parasol.

Melting of white Arctic ice, currently at its lowest level in recent history, is causing more absorption.

The Cambridge University expert says that the Arctic ice cap is "heading for oblivion".

In 1980, the Arctic ice in summer made up some 2% of the Earth's surface. But since then the ice has roughly halved in area.

"Thirty years ago there was typically about eight million square kilometres of ice left in the Arctic in the summer, and by 2007 that had halved, it had gone down to about four million, and this year it has gone down below that," Prof Wadhams said.

And the volume of ice has dropped, with the ice getting thinner:

"The volume of ice in the summer is only a quarter of what it was 30 years ago and that's really the prelude to this final collapse," Prof Wadhams said.

Parts of the Arctic Ocean are now as warm in summer as the North Sea is in winter, Prof Wadhams said.
Radiation absorbed

The polar ice cap acts as a giant parasol, reflecting sunlight back into the atmosphere in what is known as the albedo effect.

But white ice and snow reflect far more of the sun's energy than the open water that is replacing it as the ice melts.

Instead of being reflected away from the Earth, this energy is absorbed, and contributes to warming:

"Over that 1% of the Earth's surface you are replacing a bright surface which reflects nearly all of the radiation falling on it with a dark surface which absorbs nearly all.

"The difference, the extra radiation that's absorbed is, from our calculations, the equivalent of about 20 years of additional CO2 being added by man," Prof Wadhams said.

If his calculations are correct then that means that over recent decades the melting of the Arctic ice cap has put as much heat into the system as all the CO2 we have generated in that time.

And if the ice continues to decline at the current rate it could play an even bigger role than greenhouse gases.



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August 27 2012 5:08 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
I'm sure it's fine.
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August 28 2012 2:07 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
dont you know that everything related to global warming/glaciers melting is just *insert reason* by *insert company/political party* to *insert money/political gain*?!
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August 28 2012 10:55 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
Typical liberal media
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August 28 2012 11:33 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
NASA and their liberal Muslim agenda.
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August 28 2012 11:55 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
We deserve it.
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jewish homosexual big brother agenda
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Kenyan ass soviet russia ass motherfuckin agenda.
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August 29 2012 1:08 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
Originally posted by: Billy Crystals

We deserve it.

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August 29 2012 4:23 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
^we do, but they don't:









click here for link
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September 2 2012 10:57 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
Thursday, August 30, 2012
New blockbuster paper finds man-made CO2 is not the driver of global warming
click here for link
An important new paper published today in Global and Planetary Change finds that changes in CO2 follow rather than lead global air surface temperature and that "CO2 released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2" The paper finds the "overall global temperature change sequence of events appears to be from 1) the ocean surface to 2) the land surface to 3) the lower troposphere," in other words, the opposite of claims by global warming alarmists that CO2 in the atmosphere drives land and ocean temperatures. Instead, just as in the ice cores, CO2 levels are found to be a lagging effect of ocean warming, not significantly related to man-made emissions, and not the driver of warming. Prior research has shown infrared radiation from greenhouse gases is incapable of warming the oceans, only shortwave radiation from the Sun is capable of penetrating and heating the oceans and thereby driving global surface temperatures.

The highlights of the paper are:

* The overall global temperature change sequence of events appears to be from 1) the ocean surface to 2) the land surface to 3) the lower troposphere.

* Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 11–12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature.

* Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5-10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature.

* Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 9 months behind changes in global lower troposphere temperature.

* Changes in ocean temperatures appear to explain a substantial part of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 since January 1980.

* CO2 released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2, and changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.



The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature

Ole Humluma, b,
Kjell Stordahlc,
Jan-Erik Solheimd

a Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
b Department of Geology, University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), P.O. Box 156, N-9171 Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway
c Telenor Norway, Finance, N-1331 Fornebu, Norway
d Department of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.08.008,

Abstract
Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2 variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2. In our analysis we use eight well-known datasets; 1) globally averaged well-mixed marine boundary layer CO2 data, 2) HadCRUT3 surface air temperature data, 3) GISS surface air temperature data, 4) NCDC surface air temperature data, 5) HadSST2 sea surface data, 6) UAH lower troposphere temperature data series, 7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO2, and 8) GWP data on volcanic eruptions. Annual cycles are present in all datasets except 7) and 8), and to remove the influence of these we analyze 12-month averaged data. We find a high degree of co-variation between all data series except 7) and 8), but with changes in CO2 always lagging changes in temperature. The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5-10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature. The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 is high, but do not explain all observed changes.

Highlights

* The overall global temperature change sequence of events appears to be from 1) the ocean surface to 2) the land surface to 3) the lower troposphere. *Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 11–12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature. *Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5-10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature. *Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 9 months behind changes in global lower troposphere temperature. *Changes in ocean temperatures appear to explain a substantial part of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 since January 1980. *CO2 released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2, and changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.
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September 3 2012 11:10 AM   QuickQuote Quote  
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September 19 2012 4:23 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
.



AP News

Arctic ice shrinks to all-time low; half 1980 size

By Seth Borenstein on September 19, 2012



WASHINGTON (AP) — In a critical climate indicator showing an ever warming world, the amount of ice in the Arctic Ocean shrank to an all-time low this year, obliterating old records.

The ice cap at the North Pole measured 1.32 million square miles on Sunday. That's 18 percent smaller than the previous record of 1.61 million square miles set in 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo. Records go back to 1979 based on satellite tracking.

"On top of that, we're smashing a record that smashed a record," said data center scientist Walt Meier. Sea ice shrank in 2007 to levels 22 percent below the previous record of 2005.

Ice in the Arctic melts in summer and grows in winter, and it started growing again on Monday. In the 1980s, Meier said, summer sea ice would cover an area slightly smaller than the Lower 48 states. Now it is about half that.

Man-made global warming has melted more sea ice and made it thinner over the last couple decades with it getting much more extreme this year, surprisingly so, said snow and ice data center director Mark Serreze.

"Recently the loss of summer ice has accelerated and the six lowest September ice extents have all been in the past six years," Serreze said. "I think that's quite remarkable."

Serreze said except for one strong storm that contributed to the ice loss, this summer melt was more from the steady effects of day-to-day global warming. But he and others say the polar regions are where the globe first sees the signs of climate change.

"Arctic sea ice is one of the most sensitive of nature's thermometers," said Jason Box, an Ohio State University polar researcher.

What happens in the Arctic changes climate all over the rest of the world, scientists have reported in studies.

The ice in the Arctic "essentially acts like an air conditioner by keeping things cooler," Meier said. And when sea ice melts more, it's like the air conditioner isn't running efficiently, he said.

Sea ice reflects more than 90 percent of the sun's heat off the Earth, but when it is replaced by the darker open ocean, more than half of the heat is absorbed into the water, Meier said.

Scientists at the snow and ice data center said their computer models show an Arctic that would be essentially free of ice in the summer by 2050, but they add that current trends show ice melting faster than the computers are predicting.
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September 19 2012 6:42 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
Alien technology.
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